America stands at a dangerous crossroads in the global race for green technology supremacy. While European nations surge ahead with coordinated multi-trillion dollar investments and China dominates manufacturing with record-breaking deployment, the United States appears to be deliberately undermining its own competitive position just as the clean energy market reaches a historic inflection point.
Green tech is high tech, too
Business leaders in Europe often bemoan how “behind” it is in the global tech race. At the same time, Americans have taken their leadership in technology for granted, to the point at which we treat the founders and investors in tech companies like demi-gods, even as life for many ordinary people has gotten worse.
But if history teaches us anything, it is that being a leader at one point is not a guarantee of being one after a major inflection point. Indeed, those who ignore the patterns of bubbles and golden ages, as Carlota Perez has described, do so at their peril. Which brings me to the concern that the US could be leaving itself dangerously vulnerable to being overtaken in green technologies, even as other countries are making generation-defining investments.
The numbers tell a stark story
China invested close to $680 billion in clean tech manufacturing in 2024, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA). That’s almost as much as the United States and the E.U. combined. It continues to lead the world in wind and solar, as one analysis found, “Between March 2023 and March 2024, China installed more solar than it had in the previous three years combined, and more than the rest of the world combined for 2023.”
America’s politics have led to a retreat from what the International Energy Agency calls a $3.3 trillion global market. The green technology and sustainability market size was valued at USD 22.66 Billion in 2023 and is poised to grow from USD 29.3 Billion in 2024 to USD 228.96 Billion by 2032, growing at a CAGR of 29.3% during the forecast period (2025-2032).
Europe’s coordinated advance
The EU is quietly executing a masterclass in strategic industrial policy. The European Commission has pledged to mobilize at least €1 trillion in sustainable investments to finance the European Green Deal. Remarkably, this is a systematic approach combining public investment, regulatory frameworks, and private capital mobilization.
The European strategy demonstrates sophisticated thinking about competitive advantage. The European Union spends more than USD 10 on clean energy for every USD 1 invested in fossil fuels. More importantly, the 2024 European Innovation Fund calls drew 373 project proposals for net-zero tech and EV battery manufacturing, showing strong EU industry commitment to climate goals. Up to €3.4 billion in funding will support Europe’s clean, competitive, and resilient future.
China’s overwhelming dominance
China’s position is even more formidable. The country is rewriting the rules of industrial competition. Installed solar and wind power capacity climbed 45.2% and 18%, respectively, in 2024, while between March 2023 and March 2024, China installed more solar than it had in the previous three years combined, and more than the rest of the world combined for 2023.
But China’s true advantage lies in supply chain control. Last year China refined three-quarters of the world’s cobalt and 91 percent of its graphite. It also produced 92 percent of all processed rare earth elements, the hard-to-extract metals used widely in high-tech manufacturing. This could lead to it exercising strategic control over the raw materials that power the clean energy revolution.
The economic implications are staggering. Clean-energy sectors drove a quarter of the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth in 2024 and have overtaken real-estate sales in value. While other nations debate climate policy, China is building the industrial foundation of the 21st century economy.
In the past few months, companies have canceled, delayed, or scaled back at least nine US clean energy supply chain developments or operations…representing some $8 billion in public and private investments, and more than 9,000 jobs.
Perhaps most damaging, tens of millions of dollars in NSF grants have been slashed, and scientists fear the US is about to lose a generation of climate researchers. Such losses have a long tail – you can’t just wave a magic wand and restore the depth of scientific knowledge we have, once it is lost.
A strategic inflection point
A strategic inflection point emerges when changes in the external environment shift the realm of what’s possible, opening the door to previously inconceivable business models and activities. The leading indicators of the coming change are economic, technological and geopolitical, creating the potential for perfect storm. Over three quarters of new renewable energy capacity added in 2024 was cheaper than fossil fuels, making clean energy not just environmentally necessary but economically inevitable. The integration of AI, advanced manufacturing, and energy systems is creating new possibilities for those who maintain R&D leadership while penalizing those who retreat.
.
America’s withdrawal creates opportunities for its global competitors. The IEA has estimated that China’s clean tech exports will be worth more than $340 billion by 2035 — about the same as the oil export revenue of Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates combined in 2024.
Meanwhile, Europe is positioning itself as the innovation and regulatory leader. The EU can become a clean tech manufacturing powerhouse – especially as the US rolls back green subsidies and cedes ground to China. If we know anything at all about strategic inflection points, it’s that it is no fun being on the wrong side of one.
Toward a green Golden Age
The window for American leadership isn’t closed, but it’s narrowing rapidly. This isn’t about ideology—it’s about economic competitiveness in one of the fastest-growing sectors of the global economy. It is also likely to be a powerhouse for job creation, as millions of workers will be needed to retrofit old infrastructure, design the new food and supply chains of the future and otherwise accompany the digital transformation with a more green “golden age.”
American companies and states that maintain green technology investments despite federal policy reversals will be positioned to benefit. And there are many examples of companies and regions that have maintained or even increased their commitments. But the longer America cedes leadership in manufacturing, research, and deployment, the harder it becomes to regain competitive position in a sector where first-mover advantages compound rapidly.
The question isn’t whether the clean energy transition will happen—that’s already determined by economics and physics. The question is whether America will lead it, follow it, or be left behind by it.